Product development historically is driven by market demands, but prediction accuracy of product development risk can also be low due to the lack of methods or tools available to evaluate the potential development risks. This can create doubt and uncertainty about the prediction methods, as well as the data that feeds into the model.

When implemented effectively, and by using historical knowledge, quantified prediction of product development timelines can be made accurately, allowing companies to generate sound risk assessments regarding the product.

Product development risk, left unquantified, is easily dismissed as baseless worry or lack of a "can do" attitude. This leads to unsubstantiated guesses being made as to the product’s readiness, leaving the most critical risk decisions up to experiential consensus.

This session presents an example of the evaluation methodology on a rudimentary level, and shows how predicting risk may be a tool that engineering teams can use to ease potential product development roadblocks.

Key Words: Product Development, Risk Prediction, Schedule Forecasting, R&D Planning